Behind the Bastards

It Could Happen Here Weekly 225

Mar 28, 2026
Guest
Ilya Ayoub
Guest
Stephen Monticelli
Guest
Michael Phillips
Guest
Molly Conger
Ilya Ayoub, Lebanon- and Middle East-focused historian and journalist, outlines Lebanon’s devastation and regional stakes. Michael Phillips, historian and author, and Stephen Monicelli, political extremism reporter, dig into the Fifth Circuit and Judge James Ho’s influence. Molly Conger, journalist and podcaster, with Mia Wong, breaks down shadow banking risks and modern financial fragilities.
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INSIGHT

Disarming Hezbollah Without Alternatives Is Unrealistic

  • Lebanon's army lacks capacity to replace Hezbollah; asking Hezbollah to disarm without credible security or economic alternatives is unrealistic.
  • Ilya emphasized Lebanon's economic collapse and dependence on under-resourced Lebanese Armed Forces funded by the U.S.
INSIGHT

Israel's Strategy Moved Toward Permanent Degradation

  • Nathan Brown's 'domination, degradation, prevention of recovery' framework captures a shift in Israeli strategy from deterrence to permanent degradation of adversaries.
  • The result is policies focused on preventing enemy recovery rather than negotiated settlements.
INSIGHT

Eliminating Hezbollah Won't Solve Lebanon's Structural Crisis

  • Ilya warned that destroying Hezbollah won't resolve Lebanon's root problems; new violent actors will emerge from structural collapse.
  • He compared Lebanon's trajectory to Gaza and argued impunity and domination drive repeated cycles of violence.
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