Credit Default Swaps and Betting on Failure

They describe credit default swaps as insurance-turned-bets and how layered instruments created perverse incentives.

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Episode notes

All of this week's episodes of It Could Happen Here put together in one large file.

- Prairieland and Antifa Terrorism

- The Scariest Court in America feat. Steven Monacelli & Dr. Michael Phillips

- Israel’s Attack on Lebanon

- Shadow Banking: The Once and Future Economic Apocalypse

- Executive Disorder: ICE at Airports, New DHS Secretary, Iran Negotiations

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Sources/Links:

Prairieland and Antifa Terrorism

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.txnd.410488/gov.uscourts.txnd.410488.367.0.pdf

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.txnd.410488/gov.uscourts.txnd.410488.366.0.pdf

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/antifa-cell-members-convicted-prairieland-ice-detention-center-shooting

https://www.nacdl.org/getattachment/f536e696-072c-4982-bc47-d2dc7f42f766/gov-uscourts-txnd-411041-89-0_1.pdf

https://prairielanddefendants.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Superseding-Indictment-2.pdf

https://www.keranews.org/criminal-justice/2026-03-03/prairieland-ice-detention-center-shooting-trial-defendants-self-defense-third-party-defense-theory-judge-mark-pittman

https://prairielanddefendants.com/court-notes/march-3rd-federal-trial-day-7/

https://prairielanddefendants.com/court-notes/march-6th-federal-trial-day-10/

https://prairielanddefendants.com/court-notes/march-10-federal-trial-day-12/

https://prairielanddefendants.com/court-notes/march-10-federal-trial-day-12/#kyle-shideler-prosecutions-antifa-expert-redirect

https://prairielanddefendants.com/court-notes/february-26-federal-trial-day-5/

https://prairielanddefendants.com/court-notes/february-27th-federal-trial-day-6/

https://prairielanddefendants.com/court-notes/march-9th-federal-trial-day-11/

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R41333

https://www.keranews.org/criminal-justice/2026-03-10/dario-sanchez-prairieland-ice-shooting

The Scariest Court in America feat. Steven Monacelli & Dr. Michael Phillips

Jack Bass, “John Minor Wisdom, Appeals Court Judge Who Helped to End Segregation, Dies at 93,” New York Times, May 16, 1999, https://www.nytimes.com/1999/05/16/us/john-minor-wisdom-appeals-court-judge-who-helped-to-end-segregation-dies.html

Jonathan Entin, “The Surprising History of the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals,” Governing, January 23, 2024, https://www.governing.com/policy/the-surprising-history-of-the-5th-circuit-court-of-appeals.

Eleanor Klibanoff, “Again and again, U.S. Supreme Court slaps down 5th Circuit,” The Texas Tribune, July 3, 2024, https://www.texasstandard.org/stories/supreme-court-5th-circuit-court-rulings-texas-overturned/

Mattathias Schwartz, “This Federal Judge Is the ‘Tip of the Spear’ of Trump-Era Conservatism,” New York Times, August 9, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/09/us/judge-ho-trump-border.html

Israel’s Attack on Lebanon

Lebanese news source Megaphone news – https://megaphone.news

Elia at +972mag - https://www.972mag.com/israels-renewed-war-on-lebanon-is-about-more-than-just-hezbollah/

Death toll and displacement numbers in Lebanon - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/22/hezbollah-attack-kills-one-in-north-israel-as-assault-on-lebanon-continues

Nathan Brown on “Israel’s Forever Wars” - https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2026/03/dominance-degradation-and-debilitation

Land for peace concept - https://archive.unescwa.org/land-peace-principle

Foundation for Defense of Democracy on “Peace for Land” - https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/01/23/peace-for-land-not-land-for-peace/

The book Beware of Small States - https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/david-hirst/beware-of-small-states/9780786744411/?lens=bold-type-books

The Fire These Times podcast - https://thefirethesetimes.com/

Shadow Banking: The Once and Future Economic Apocalypse

https://www.fsb.org/work-of-the-fsb/financial-innovation-and-structural-change/non-bank-financial-intermediation/

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/11/shadow-banking-is-now-a-52-trillion-industry-and-posing-risks.html