SIO508: The Data Shows That Authoritarianism Is Very Often Successfully Reversed. Yes, Really.

"Yes we can" vote and protest our way out of authoritarianism.

It's a classic case of academic literature never making it to mainstream consumption. Hang around social media long enough and you'll hear that we're basically screwed. A complete fascist take over is either extremely likely, inevitable, or it's already here. And there's not much we can do about it. Unless some other country invades us, we'll be waiting for a civil war or a bloody military coup to hopefully maybe turn things around. That's what history teaches us, right?

Literally the opposite. An incredible data set that a team of thousands of academics have been assembling for over a decade provides a unique opportunity to examine these questions with fresh eyes. To look at wannabe dictators and see how many succeeded, how many eventually lost power, how democracy returned (if ever), and why. With this systematic approach, we see that strengthened democracy specifically because of authoritarian episodes is increasingly common. In fact, in the last 30 years it's the most common response to autocratization, and most often achieved by internal democratic actors. Taking this into account, events once viewed as episodes of successful stand-alone autocratization, with resistance ultimately futile, are actually better characterized as failures that caused a wave of democratic sentiment in the populace. Successful civil resistance that just took time.

Jenessa takes us through the paper that has her jumping for joy this week. Resist!

• Nord, M. Angiolillo, F., Lundstedt, M., Wiebrecht, F., & Lindberg, S.I. (2025). When autocratization is reversed: episodes of U-Turns since 1900. Democratization, 32, 1136-1159.

• Frequently asked questions. Varieties of Democracy Institute.

• The Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset. Varieties of Democracy Institute.

• V-Dem. Electoral Democracy Index, 2024. Our World in Data.

• Sato, Y., Lundstedt, M., Morrison, K., Boese, V.A., & Lindberg, S.I. (2022). Institutional order in episodes of autocratization. The Varieties of Democracy Institute.

• Armitage, C. (Aug. 13, 2025). I researched every attempt to stop fascism in history. The success rate is 0%. The Existentialist Republic.

Further reading:

• Nord, M., Angiolillo, F., Good God, A., & Lindberg, S.I. (2025). State of the world 2024: 25 years of autocratization – democracy trumped? Democratization, 32, 839-864.

• Anti-Pluralism. European Center for Populism Studies.

• Coppedge, M. (2023). V-Dem's conceptions of democracy and their consequences. The Varieties of Democracy Institute.

• Lührmann, A. & Lindberg, S.I. (2019). A third wave of autocratization is here: What is new about it? Democratization, 26, 1095-1113.

• Croissant, A. & Lott, L. (2025). Democratic resilience in the twenty-first century: Search for an analytical framework and explorative analysis. Political Studies, 0, 1-28.

• Tomini, L., Gibril, S. & Bochev, V. (2023). Standing up against autocratization across political regimes: A comparative analysis of resistance actors and strategies. Democratization, 30, 119-138.

• Wiebrecht, F., Sato, Y., Nord, M., Lundstedt, M., Angiolillo, F., & Lindberg, S.I. (2023). State of the world 2022: Defiance in the face of autocratization. Democratization, 30, 769-793.

• Gamboa, L. (2017). Opposition at the margins: Strategies against the erosion of democracy in Colombia and Venezuela. Comparative Politics, 49, 457-477.

• Laebens, M.G., & Lührmann, A. (2023). What halts democratic erosion? The changing role of accountability. In Lührmann, A. & Merkel, W. (Eds.), Resilience of democracy: Responses to illiberal and authoritarian challenges (pp. 40-61). Routledge.

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