Forward Guidance Is The Iran Energy Shock About To Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup
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Mar 6, 2026 They track Iran tensions and how an energy shock could ripple through fragile markets. They dissect oil volatility, front‑month contract stress, hedging behavior and curve dynamics. They cover credit strains, private credit mark‑to‑market risks and dollar liquidity tightening. They explore bond market dysfunction, LNG outage risks and how commodities may drive policy moves.
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Moving For Macro Arbitrage Paid Off For Tyler
- Tyler moved from San Francisco to Texas after noticing a macro demographic shift and profited from regional real estate arbitrage.
- He cites Mark Hart's early bets on Austin garbage companies as an example of actionable macro relocation trade.
Prefer Conservative Capital Allocation Now
- Avoid aggressive risk-taking; favor conservative capital allocation during this late-cycle, liquidity-fragile period.
- Tyler recommends conservatism because private credit stress, widening credit spreads, and absent buybacks increase downside risk.
Watch The March 20th OPEX As A Volatility Trigger
- Monitor March 20th OPEX and near-term option expiries as potential volatility catalysts around geopolitical duration uncertainty.
- Felix cites triple witching and heavy positioning that could force large moves if the crisis persists into OPEX.