Moody's Talks - Inside Economics On An Economic Tight Rope
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Aug 1, 2025 Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, dives deep into today's challenging labor market and economic landscape. He discusses the troubling inflation trends and their impact on the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The conversation explores discrepancies in job data, particularly how new graduates are struggling to find work. DeAntonio also analyzes insights from a predictive model on recession probabilities while emphasizing the growing uncertainty surrounding employment trends and consumer confidence.
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Consumer Spending Stalls Amid Tariffs
- Consumer spending has been essentially flat since December, signaling weak economic momentum.
- Tariff-induced price increases are starting to erode real purchasing power and may weaken spending further.
Tough Job Market for New Entrants
- A historically high 13.4% share of new labor force entrants remain unemployed.
- Many new job seekers face a tough labor market, similar to conditions last seen in the early 1980s.
Sum of States Foreshadows Weak Jobs
- Sum of state employment data, which arrives later and uses more sample data, showed only a 3,100 job gain in June.
- This foreshadowed large downward revisions in national job growth estimates, signaling a weaker labor market.