Asianometry Silicon Valley Thinks TSMC is Braking the AI Boom
10 snips
Feb 1, 2026 A clear-eyed look at whether TSMC is really throttling the AI boom. An explanation of supply-chain dynamics using the Boba Game and the bullwhip effect. A deep dive into why chip fabs, suppliers, and long lead times make rapid scaling hard. A discussion of past chip crunch lessons, capex timing, and whether silicon or power is the real bottleneck.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Shortages Are Systemic, Not Just TSMC's Fault
- Semiconductor shortages reflect long, complex supply chains rather than a single company's malaise.
- The industry regularly swings between severe shortages and gluts due to long lead times and forecasting challenges.
The Boba Game Shows The Bullwhip Effect
- Asianometry describes the 'Boba Game' to show how demand amplifies through supply chains.
- Players across retailer to factory struggle with delays, inventory costs, and amplified reactions to demand spikes.
Deep Supplier Complexity Creates Chokepoints
- TSMC's input base spans thousands of specialized suppliers and non-fungible tools and materials.
- Each niche tool or material has very limited suppliers, creating chokepoints when demand surges.
