Stratechery has a recent piece out titled TSMC Risk, in which he calls out TSMC’s conservatism as costing the American hyperscalers “hundreds of billions” in revenue. Before we continue, I want to disclose that I work with Ben. The Asianometry newsletter runs on his platform Passport, and I am friendly with him. I am not trying to flame him. But I am hearing many similar views in the Silicon Valley Borg. That TSMC is the “brake” or “limiter” on the AI boom. As if they’re the reason why we don’t have AGI yet. Because they didn’t and still don’t BELIEVE. If we can ever say that a company that spent $41 billion of capital expenditure in 2025 with another $53-56 billion in 2026 is sitting on its hands doing nothing. And to be clear, I largely agree with Ben’s final message. TSMC having 90% share of the AI chip market looks pretty unhealthy. I was supposed to be working on video about bananas, but I had to do this first. In today’s video, a few scattered thoughts on TSMC taking away the AI punch bowl.
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