NAB Morning Call Weekend Edition: From Dairy to Data: Can NZ Outgrow Australia’s Shadow?
Feb 13, 2026
Stephen Toplis, Head of Research at BNZ and veteran NZ macro commentator. He unpacks whether central banks misstepped on inflation and how that shaped monetary conditions. He compares NZ and Australia on growth, labour migration and housing. He explores limits to dairy expansion, the promise of value‑added exports, renewables, tech and infrastructure as routes to future growth.
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Agriculture Has Physical Growth Limits
- Agricultural volume growth is limited by land, stocking and environmental constraints.
- Toplis says NZ must focus on adding value to produce rather than expanding volume.
Skills Mismatch Is Hitting Labour Markets
- There's a growing skills mismatch: rising wages and hiring difficulty coexist with elevated unemployment.
- Firms can't find required specialists while unemployed people lack the right skills to fill roles.
Australia Draws Young Kiwi Workers
- Migration flows to Australia are driven primarily by relative unemployment and wage prospects.
- Young, asset-poor Kiwis are especially likely to move across the Tasman for jobs.