Bitcoin Audible Read_925 - Stone Ridge 2025 Investor Letter
Dive into the thrilling intersection of treasure hunting and Bitcoin as a human rights tool. Ross Stevens passionately shares insights on Bayesian statistics and the importance of adaptability in decision-making. Experience the emotional moment with a voice message from Nobel laureate Maria Corina Machado, highlighting Bitcoin's role in Venezuela. The discussion also critiques legacy businesses and promotes optimism as a key to success. Overall, this is a rich exploration of innovation, persistence, and the transformative power of belief.
01:33:10
Monoline Risk Is Structural Fragility
- Narrow, mono-line business models often fail because they can't adapt when the cycle shifts.
- Stone Ridge favors diversified, adaptable approaches over legacy-only strategies.
Longtail Re's Conservative Legacy Moves
- Longtail Re began in 2020 to partner with top underwriters and avoid legacy-only risks.
- It wrote only three legacy trades and delivered ~20% annualized ROE since inception.
Bitcoin As Human Rights Money
- Critics in privileged media miss Bitcoin's critical uses for people under failed monetary regimes.
- Stevens argues fiat collapse makes Bitcoin a human-rights and survival tool, not a retail payment novelty.
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Intro
00:00 • 5min
Mel Fisher's 'Today's the Day' Treasure Philosophy
05:23 • 3min
Bayesian Thinking and Learning from Data
08:31 • 5min
Adaptability Quotient and Avoiding Confirmation Bias
13:54 • 2min
Bayesian Treasure Hunting in Energy Assets
16:03 • 3min
From Tests to Scale: Fayetteville Results
18:58 • 2min
Building an Energy Franchise with Flywheel
20:33 • 2min
Shale Revolution: Supply, Tech, Capital
22:50 • 2min
Why Monoline Legacy Businesses Fail
24:25 • 3min
Longtail Re's Strategy and Waiting Portfolio Treasure
26:58 • 60sec
Landmark Everest Legacy Transaction
27:58 • 2min
Longtail's Track Record and Market Opportunity
29:47 • 1min
Bitcoin as a Human Rights Tool
30:51 • 4min
Maria Corina Machado & Bitcoin's Role in Venezuela
34:32 • 8min
Voice Message from Maria Corina to Ross Stevens
42:12 • 1min
Bitcoin's Use Case: Human Rights Treasure
43:26 • 26sec
Culture, Rituals, and Mutuals' Longevity Lessons
43:52 • 5min
Meeting Culture and No-Device Policy
48:55 • 3min
Hiring Standards and No HR Policy
52:20 • 2min
Financial Discipline and Product Alignment
54:01 • 2min
Capital Raising and Founder Returns
55:39 • 1min
Daily Rituals and 'Today's the Day' Reprise
56:40 • 1min
Guy's Reflections on Stone Ridge Letter
57:52 • 7min
Storytelling, Branding, and Narrative Advice
01:05:01 • 2min
Build Products You'd Use
01:07:01 • 5min
Optimism Is Necessary for Success
01:11:40 • 9min
Personal Burnout, Course Correction, and Persistence
01:21:01 • 9min
Outro
01:30:05 • 3min
#10025
• Mentioned in 5 episodes
Fascinate
Your 7 Triggers to Persuasion and Captivation
Sally Hogshead
In 'Fascinate: Your 7 Triggers to Persuasion and Captivation,' Sally Hogshead explores the powerful concept of fascination and how it can be used to capture attention and influence behavior in an oversaturated culture.
The book delves into the seven languages of fascination—Innovation, Passion, Power, Prestige, Trust, Mystique, and Alert—drawing from disciplines such as neurobiology, psychology, and evolutionary anthropology.
Hogshead provides practical advice on how businesses, products, and ideas can become irresistible by leveraging these fascination triggers.
#715
• Mentioned in 47 episodes
Save the Cat
Blake Snyder
In 'Save the Cat!', Blake Snyder provides a detailed analysis of the three-act structure and introduces his 15-beat sheet, a method for structuring screenplays.
The book covers key elements such as the Opening Image, Catalyst, Debate, Break into Two, B Story, Fun and Games, Midpoint, Bad Guys Close In, All Is Lost, Dark Night of the Soul, Break into Three, Finale, and Final Image.
Snyder also discusses the importance of making the hero likable through the 'Save the Cat' rule and breaks down successful films to illustrate his points.
The book is widely regarded as a definitive resource for screenwriters, offering practical advice and a clear framework for storytelling.
#31665
• Mentioned in 2 episodes
Story genius
Lisa Cron
Lisa Cron's "Story Genius" offers a practical approach to character development and plotting.
It emphasizes understanding a character's backstory and desires to create compelling narratives.
The book provides exercises to help writers connect with their characters and build engaging stories.
Cron's insights into the psychology of storytelling make it valuable for both novice and experienced writers.
It's a highly recommended resource for those seeking to improve their character-driven storytelling.
#14659
• Mentioned in 4 episodes
Wired for story
The Writer's Guide to Using Brain Science to Hook Readers from the Very First Sentence
Lisa Cron
In 'Wired for Story,' Lisa Cron combines neuroscience with storytelling principles to help writers understand how the brain processes stories.
The book explains how to hook readers by meeting their hardwired expectations, how to structure a story effectively, and how to use conflict and character development to keep readers engaged.
Cron provides numerous examples from literature and film, along with practical advice and checklists to improve writing skills.
The book emphasizes that a story is not just about plot, but about how the protagonist changes as a result of their journey, making it an internal rather than external experience for the reader.
#2316
• Mentioned in 19 episodes
Longitude
The True Story of a Lone Genius Who Solved the Greatest Scientific Problem of His Time
Dava Sobel
In 'Longitude', Dava Sobel narrates the epic scientific quest to determine longitude at sea, a problem that had plagued navigators for centuries.
The story centers around John Harrison, a self-educated clockmaker from Yorkshire, who devoted forty years to developing a series of precise chronometers that could accurately measure time even on long and rough sea voyages.
By comparing the chronometer's time to local sun time, navigators could precisely measure longitude, a breakthrough that significantly improved maritime navigation and saved countless lives.
The book also delves into the historical context, including the establishment of the Board of Longitude and the scientific and political rivalries of the time, making it a compelling tale of human ambition, science, and innovation.
"Today's the day."
~ Mel Fisher
Why does a reinsurance company's annual letter get me this fired up? Ross Stevens weaves together treasure hunting, Bayesian statistics, and the raw reality of Bitcoin as a human rights tool - culminating in a voice message from Nobel Prize winner Maria Karina Machado that moved him to tears. In my rant, I unpack why optimism isn't woo-woo, it's basic logic - and why waiting for certainty before believing in your own success is a guaranteed path to failure.
Check out the original article: Stone Ridge 2025 Investor Letter (Link: https://www.nydig.com/research/stone-ridge-2025-investor-letter)
References from the episode
- The Adaptability Quotient by Alec Litowitz - The forthcoming field guide for success mentioned in the letter.
- Wired for Story and Story Genius by Lisa Cron - My favorite books on what storytelling actually is. (Hint: it's not the plot!) (Link: http://wiredforstory.com/books)
- Fascinate: How to Make your Brand Impossible to Resist by Sally Hogshead - Fantastic on branding and narrative. (Link: https://a.co/d/5H1FJUy)
- Save the Cat by Blake Snyder - Useful for story pacing, but to be paired with Kill the Dog for balance.
(Link: https://a.co/d/a1rp6Lc) - Longitude by Dava Sobel (Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longitude_(book))
- The Human Rights Foundation (Link: https://hrf.org/)
- HRF Weekly Financial Freedom Reports (Link: https://hrf.org/newsletters/)
Host Links
- Guy on Nostr (Link: http://tinyurl.com/2xc96ney)
- Guy on X (Link: https://twitter.com/theguyswann)
- Guy on Instagram (Link: https://www.instagram.com/theguyswann)
- Guy on TikTok (Link: https://www.tiktok.com/@theguyswann)
- Guy on YouTube (Link: https://www.youtube.com/@theguyswann)
- Bitcoin Audible on X (Link: https://twitter.com/BitcoinAudible)
- The Guy Swann Network Broadcast Room on Keet (Link: https://tinyurl.com/3na6v839)
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