Bayesian Thinking and Learning from Data

"Today's the day."

~ Mel Fisher

Why does a reinsurance company's annual letter get me this fired up? Ross Stevens weaves together treasure hunting, Bayesian statistics, and the raw reality of Bitcoin as a human rights tool - culminating in a voice message from Nobel Prize winner Maria Karina Machado that moved him to tears. In my rant, I unpack why optimism isn't woo-woo, it's basic logic - and why waiting for certainty before believing in your own success is a guaranteed path to failure.

Check out the original article: Stone Ridge 2025 Investor Letter (Link: https://www.nydig.com/research/stone-ridge-2025-investor-letter)

References from the episode

• The Adaptability Quotient by Alec Litowitz - The forthcoming field guide for success mentioned in the letter.
• Wired for Story and Story Genius by Lisa Cron - My favorite books on what storytelling actually is. (Hint: it's not the plot!) (Link: http://wiredforstory.com/books)
• Fascinate: How to Make your Brand Impossible to Resist by Sally Hogshead - Fantastic on branding and narrative. (Link: https://a.co/d/5H1FJUy)
• Save the Cat by Blake Snyder - Useful for story pacing, but to be paired with Kill the Dog for balance.
  (Link: https://a.co/d/a1rp6Lc)
• Longitude by Dava Sobel (Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longitude_(book))
• The Human Rights Foundation (Link: https://hrf.org/)
• HRF Weekly Financial Freedom Reports (Link: https://hrf.org/newsletters/)

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• ⁠Bitcoin Audible on X⁠ (Link: https://twitter.com/BitcoinAudible)
• The Guy Swann Network Broadcast Room on Keet (Link: https://tinyurl.com/3na6v839)

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