252: The K-Shaped Consumer Economy: GLP-1s, AI and the Future of Consumer Spending

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Mar 6, 2026

Lisa Yang, Portfolio Manager and Co-Head of BlackRock’s Consumer Industry Group, tracks retail and consumer shifts. She breaks down a K-shaped U.S. consumer with higher-income households driving growth. She highlights why discounters and affordable luxury are winning. She explores how GLP-1s change food and apparel demand. She explains AI-driven agentic commerce and its impact on retail discovery and advertising.

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INSIGHT

Two Speed Consumer Economy

U.S. consumer resilience is concentrated among higher-income households while lower and middle incomes pull back.
High-income gains come from stock and home appreciation and mid-single-digit wage growth, while low-income groups face inflation on necessities and interest sensitivity.

INSIGHT

Fiscal Policy Will Widen The K Shape

2026 policy shifts will widen consumer disparities through a mix of fiscal boosts and social service cuts.
A one big beautiful bill gives roughly $100 billion in tax refund cash (spiking spending briefly) while cutting Medicaid and SNAP pressures low‑income households.

INSIGHT

Tariff Ruling Could Be A Big Tailwind

Tariff litigation and potential refunds create volatility and upside for import‑heavy retailers.
Supreme Court challenges could force companies to rethink sourcing, inventory and may yield significant 2025 tariff refunds for big importers.

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The K-shaped consumer is redefining the outlook for the U.S. economy. While overall spending remains resilient, growth is increasingly concentrated among higher-income households, creating widening gaps across income levels. As policy shifts, AI adoption, and healthcare innovations reshape behavior, the consumer landscape is becoming more uneven.

In this episode of The Bid, host Oscar Pulido is joined by Lisa Yang, Portfolio Manager and Co-Head of the Consumer Industry Group within BlackRock Fundamental Equities, to assess the state of the U.S. consumer heading into 2026. From wage growth and labor market dynamics to fiscal policy, tariffs, and immigration, Lisa explains how macro forces are influencing spending patterns — and why resilience is strongest at the high end. The conversation also explores structural shifts shaping stock market trends, including the rise of value-focused retailers, the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on food and apparel demand, and how AI-driven “agentic commerce” could transform retail media and brand discovery. As capital markets digest these changes, understanding the nuances of consumer behavior is critical for investors.

Key insights from this episode:

02:11 Introducing The "Two Speed Consumer"

04:26 Yellow Flags Ahead - Why the U.S. Consumer Remains Resilient But increasingly K-shaped

05:46 Policy Shocks 2026 - How fiscal policy and tariffs could widen income-driven spending gaps

08:45 Why Value Retailers and Discounters are Outperforming

12:01 GLP One Ripple Effects - How GLP-1 Drugs Are Reshaping Grocery, Apparel, and Beauty categories

14:40 How AI Will Change Shopping Trends - What agentic commerce means for retailers, brands, and advertising models

17:43 Other Trends Watchlist - Why Health and Wellness Remains A Durable Long-term Consumer Trend

20:02 Conclusions

K-shaped economy, U.S. consumer spending, AI in retail, GLP-1 drugs, capital markets, stock market trends, consumer investing, megaforces

Sources: “Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services” February 2026, United States Census Bureau; US Bureau of Economic Analysis (PCE data); FRED 2026, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Wage Growth Data, January 2026, Federal Reserve of Atlanta; Tax refunds per Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler estimates; “US food outlook 2026”, Bernstein; “GLP-1 Boom Accelerates Nationwide Shift in Size Curves, Putting $5 Billion in U.S. Apparel Retail Inventory at Risk, According to New Impact Analytics Study”, Global Newswire, September 2025

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