Intro

The K-shaped consumer is redefining the outlook for the U.S. economy. While overall spending remains resilient, growth is increasingly concentrated among higher-income households, creating widening gaps across income levels. As policy shifts, AI adoption, and healthcare innovations reshape behavior, the consumer landscape is becoming more uneven.

In this episode of The Bid, host Oscar Pulido is joined by Lisa Yang, Portfolio Manager and Co-Head of the Consumer Industry Group within BlackRock Fundamental Equities, to assess the state of the U.S. consumer heading into 2026. From wage growth and labor market dynamics to fiscal policy, tariffs, and immigration, Lisa explains how macro forces are influencing spending patterns — and why resilience is strongest at the high end. The conversation also explores structural shifts shaping stock market trends, including the rise of value-focused retailers, the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on food and apparel demand, and how AI-driven “agentic commerce” could transform retail media and brand discovery. As capital markets digest these changes, understanding the nuances of consumer behavior is critical for investors.

Key insights from this episode:

02:11 Introducing The "Two Speed Consumer"

04:26 Yellow Flags Ahead - Why the U.S. Consumer Remains Resilient But increasingly K-shaped

05:46 Policy Shocks 2026 - How fiscal policy and tariffs could widen income-driven spending gaps

08:45 Why Value Retailers and Discounters are Outperforming

12:01 GLP One Ripple Effects - How GLP-1 Drugs Are Reshaping Grocery, Apparel, and Beauty categories

14:40 How AI Will Change Shopping Trends - What agentic commerce means for retailers, brands, and advertising models

17:43 Other Trends Watchlist - Why Health and Wellness Remains A Durable Long-term Consumer Trend

20:02 Conclusions

K-shaped economy, U.S. consumer spending, AI in retail, GLP-1 drugs, capital markets, stock market trends, consumer investing, megaforces

Sources: “Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services” February 2026, United States Census Bureau; US Bureau of Economic Analysis (PCE data); FRED 2026, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Wage Growth Data, January 2026, Federal Reserve of Atlanta; Tax refunds per Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler estimates; “US food outlook 2026”, Bernstein; “GLP-1 Boom Accelerates Nationwide Shift in Size Curves, Putting $5 Billion in U.S. Apparel Retail Inventory at Risk, According to New Impact Analytics Study”, Global Newswire, September 2025

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