Know Your Risk Podcast The Market Feels Calm — It Isn’t
Feb 17, 2026
Discussion of inflation trends and why current calm markets may hide downside risk. A deep look at stretched valuations in the Meg Seven and the case for patient, value-aware investing. Technical and fundamental views on gold, silver, and Bitcoin as liquidity proxies. Thoughts on energy sector opportunities and a cautious take on Sprouts Farmers Market ahead of earnings.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Calm Market Masks Downside Risk
- Zach Abraham sees inflation trending higher and treats deflation scares as short-term buying opportunities in quality names.
- He warns the market's calm surface masks downside risk and expects a greater chance of a 10% pullback than a 10% rally this quarter.
AI CapEx Creates Binary Outcomes
- Zach argues Meg Seven valuations ignore massive CapEx and AI execution risk, making current prices optimistic.
- He expects a big reshuffle: some firms will win big while others will suffer impairment from AI investments.
Be Selective With Rate Trades
- Consider tactical rate trades like being long TLT if soft inflation persists, but avoid assuming large convex moves in bonds.
- Zach suggests bonds currently offer limited asymmetric opportunity and may be fairly priced for now.