Forward Guidance Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated
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Apr 1, 2026 Stephen Miran, Federal Reserve Governor focused on monetary policy and payments innovation. He explains why inflation fears may be overstated. Topics include oil shocks versus policy lags, AI and deregulation as disinflationary forces, shifts in the neutral rate, and how stablecoins and tokenized deposits could reshape dollar access.
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Measured Inflation Overstates The Problem
- The Fed's dual mandate means inflation and labor both matter, and measured inflation includes quirks that overstate underlying inflation.
- Stephen Miran cites portfolio management services biasing inflation up ~30–40 bps and a three-year gradual cooling in the labor market as key context.
Look Through Short Term Oil Shocks
- Monetary policy works with 12–18 month lags, so central banks should set policy for that horizon rather than react to immediate oil-price moves.
- Miran explains oil spikes raise headline inflation immediately but typically don't transmit into inflation 12–18 months out, so policymakers should look through them.
AI And Deregulation Are Persistent Disinflation
- Positive supply shocks like AI and deregulation can be persistent disinflationary forces that offset negative shocks.
- Miran quantifies deregulation's drag on inflation at ~0.3–0.5% per year using different methods and Fed staff research.