Excess Returns The Two Tailed Market Risk | Brent Kochuba on What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
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Nov 16, 2025 Brent Kachuba, founder of SpotGamma, dives into the intricate world of options flows and their impact on market movements. He discusses how daily market shifts are increasingly influenced by options trading and the current volatility landscape. The conversation touches on the disconnect between high market levels and underlying investor unease, parallels to the dot-com era, and how pivotal events like NVIDIA's earnings could sway market sentiment. Brent also explains concepts like negative gamma and the dynamics of monthly options expirations, shedding light on the current market stress.
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Biotech Turned Crypto Treasury Rally
- Brent noted a tiny biotech converted to a crypto treasury and rallied 500% in a day.
- He used it to illustrate speculative excess reminiscent of the dot-com era.
November Event Cluster Magnifies Outcomes
- The November cluster (NVIDIA earnings, VIX expiry, OPEX, Thanksgiving) amplifies directional risk.
- Good earnings could trigger a vol selloff and sharp rally; a miss could cascade via credit and bond hedges.
This OPEX Is Put-Skewed, Not Call-Dominated
- This expiration is unusually put-heavy compared with recent call-dominant cycles.
- The put skew is concentrated in indices and some ETFs, making this OPEX structurally different.