Know Your Risk Podcast Oil Researcher Rory Johnston Explains the Market
22 snips
Mar 16, 2026 
Rory Johnston, oil market researcher and founder of CommodityContext.com, explains the current oil market and his data-driven approach. He covers why markets seem confused after shocks. He walks through production shut-ins and slow recovery. He contrasts crude and refined product dislocations. He outlines risks from pipelines, export curbs, and physical vs paper market divergence.
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Trader Sanguinity And Expectation Of Political Intervention
- The market's muted price reaction reflects traders' experience of repeated shocks (Russia, Houthis, Israel‑Iran) and confidence that workarounds will be found.
- That trader sanguinity plus belief in imminent political intervention (the "taco") creates downside momentum and makes participants wary to push prices sharply higher.
8.5 Million Barrels Per Day Already Shut In
- Confirmed shut‑ins across Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE total about 8.5 million barrels per day so far, a much larger immediate production loss than early fears of Russian losses in 2022.
- Restarting that production will take weeks to months and could damage reservoir pressure, so flows won't snap back instantly if the Strait reopens.
Products Are Tighter Than Crude Right Now
- Physical refined products are tighter and reacting faster than crude because refineries reduce runs rather than immediately shut and product inventories are smaller for items like jet fuel.
- Asia already shows acute product dislocations and extreme local backwardation, with jet fuel in Singapore trading well above Brent.