Know Your Risk Podcast What Investors Are Missing Right Now
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Mar 11, 2026 Discussion of oil market mispricing and why front-month prices may not reflect real supply risks. Debate over energy stocks and oil as asymmetric upside plays amid supply disruptions. Analysis of military strategies, shipping insurance refusals, and how Strait closures compound shortages. Talk on geopolitical leverage, China’s tanker behavior, and recommended portfolio shifts into energy and gold.
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Markets Are Detached From The Oil Reality
- U.S. and global markets are behaving irrationally and are heavily influenced by policy and narrative rather than fundamentals.
- Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor say oil at ~$88 is mispriced by ~30–35% given the Strait disruption and policy interventions.
Avoid Shorting Oil Or Oil Volatility Now
- Do not short oil, oil volatility, or oil-dependent assets during the Strait crisis.
- Zach warns these are extremely concave bets with limited downside and potentially massive upside as supply disruption persists.
Underwriter Told Us Lloyd's Would Not Insure Missile Hits
- Zach recounts conversations with a Lloyd's underwriter who said insurers will not cover war-type missile hits.
- That private underwriter's claim explains why many ships stopped transiting despite public statements claiming coverage.