Monetary Matters with Jack Farley The Lopsided Expansion | Aahan Menon on Why Long-Term Forecasts Don’t Make Money, And The Growing Divergence Between AI CapEx And Labor Market
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Nov 29, 2025 
In this conversation, Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Macro and a renowned macro strategist, discusses the troubling divergence between surging AI capital expenditures and a weakening labor market. He highlights why long-term forecasting often fails to provide alpha and details his new neutral stance on risk across equities and commodities. Aahan also explains the implications of his strategies, emphasizing the need for short-term market signals over outdated long-term predictions, and reveals his cautious positioning in current markets.
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One-Day Signals Drive Alpha
- Aahan shows one-day (or one-week/month) forward prediction power matters far more than annual forecasts.
- He says top professionals focus on near-term signals to control risk and generate alpha.
Pay For Portfolios, Not Forecasts
- Prometheus makes macro thematic research free and charges for tradable portfolios instead.
- Aahan's slogan: pay for portfolios, not for content, because long-term thematic content rarely adds investable alpha.
Exploit Near-Term Mispricings
- Focus on granular nowcasting and detect when markets misprice near-term fundamentals.
- Trade those short-term dislocations (e.g., Liberation Day) rather than rely on long-horizon GDP calls.