Carry the Two Mathematics & Gambling Episode 1: Lotteries
Feb 26, 2026
David Taylor, mathematician and author who teaches the math of gambling, guides a deep dive into lotteries. He explains expected value with coin and die examples. He shows when massive jackpots can make ticket EV positive and why that rarely helps individual players. He contrasts scratch-off mechanics, fixed odds, tracking prizes, and how design errors can be exploited.
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Author Who Teaches Math Of Gambling Plays For Fun
- David Taylor shared he wrote a textbook and created a hands-on gambling course that explores probability and games.
- He mentioned occasionally playing slot machines for low stakes and buying a ticket for huge jackpots like $1.5B just for the one-in-a-million chance.
Expected Value Explains Long Term Winnings
- Expected value measures the average payout of a wager by summing each outcome's payout times its probability.
- David Taylor illustrated with a fair coin game (50% win $1, 50% lose $1) giving expected value zero as the baseline.
Change Payouts To Restore Fairness
- Adjust payouts to make unfair probability games more enticing by increasing the reward for rare outcomes.
- David Taylor showed the die game becomes fair if a 1/6 win pays $5 instead of $1, restoring expected value to zero.
