Amir Avivi, retired Israeli brigadier general, warns conditions for Iranian uprisings could arrive within weeks with aerial protection. David Patrikarakos, investigative journalist, describes signs of IRGC disarray and internal fractures. Jay Solomon, investigative reporter, outlines U.S. options to secure buried nuclear material. Daniel Levinson, son of Robert Levinson, shares his family's search and calls for accountability.
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War Entered A Decisive Third Stage
Amir Avivi says the conflict has evolved into a third stage focused on destroying enemies rather than merely weakening them.
He outlines prior stages: surprise defense, sequential weakening (Hamas, Lebanon, Syria, Houthis), then a decisive phase aimed at regime change in Iran.
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Weeks Could Bring Safe Conditions For Uprising
Avivi predicts it's a matter of weeks before conditions allow Iranians to safely rise, with U.S. and Israeli air cover protecting protesters.
He cites thousands of precision strikes, degraded air defenses, and attacks on Basij and IRGC command nodes as the enabling factors.
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IRGC Command Is Fragmenting With Mass Defections
Avivi reports widespread defections and collapse of IRGC command and control, with some units up to 90% defecting.
He links military strikes, siege economy, and destroyed bases to growing chaos and unit breakdowns.
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That is Brigadier General (res.) Amir Avivi’s message on what may come next in Iran. The Israeli security insider and chairman of the Israel Defense and Security Forum says conditions could soon be in place for Iranians to rise up safely against the Islamic Republic. But, he says, Israel and the US would first assess whether those conditions had truly been met — and would remain overhead in the skies, with drones and advanced capabilities, to protect the people of Iran.
“Above their heads, there will be Israeli drones and American capabilities defending them from the air, and any attempt to hit the Iranian people will be met by an attack,” Avivi told Eye for Iran.
Then, what could Washington do next?
Investigative journalists Jay Solomon of The Free Press and David Patrikarakos, special correspondent for the Daily Mail, join us to discuss the next phase. Solomon says his sources in Washington indicate the Trump administration wants to secure the more than 400 kilograms of unaccounted-for highly enriched uranium. But with Pickaxe Mountain believed to be so deeply buried, an aerial mission alone may not be enough — raising the possibility of US ground forces entering tunnels.
“The Marine Expeditionary Unit, MEU, that’s kind of been moving closer to Iran … could potentially be a unit that would be utilized to go in and try to safeguard the materials,” Solomon says.
Patrikarakos shares what his sources are seeing inside Iran, including reports of growing disorder and signs that some IRGC elements may be turning against one another. Is the Revolutionary Guards Corps nearing a breaking point?
“They paint a picture of a regime in disarray, its security apparatus is in disarray,” Patrikarakos says.
And finally, we speak with Daniel Levinson, the son of retired FBI agent Robert Levinson, who disappeared in Iran while on an unsanctioned CIA-linked mission and is presumed dead. He tells us why the latest US and Israeli strikes may bring his family closer to the truth.
“Khamenei had the power to free my dad at any point and chose not to. He knew what was happening and did nothing, so for our family, it’s been an emotional moment — but not one of grief.”
You can watch this week's episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any podcast platform of your choosing.
Contents for this video:
00:00 Avivi: “The goal is clear” 00:24 Avivi says a turning point could be weeks away 00:54 Larijani dead, regime vows revenge 01:22 New reporting on IRGC infighting and next US moves 02:17 Robert Levinson case: Daniel Levinson joins later 03:45 Avivi on the three stages of the war 07:07 When can Iranians safely rise up? 09:20 Why Larijani’s killing matters 10:51 Is regime change the end game? 12:31 What conditions need to be met inside Iran 13:21 Avivi claims major defections in some units 16:01 Jay Solomon and David Patrikarakos join 16:35 David Patrikarakos on regime disarray 19:08 Are IRGC members turning on each other? 21:05 Jay Solomon on Pickaxe Mountain and US options 25:29 Could US boots go into the tunnels? 28:55 Kharg Island and pressure on the regime 34:07 Is this war also about China? 41:20 What is the actual US objective? 44:20 Could more regime officials be targeted? 45:27 Executions continue inside Iran 47:13 Iran’s information war in the West 52:44 Daniel Levinson joins the program 54:12 Robert Levinson’s disappearance explained 55:30 The family’s 19-year search for answers 56:58 Official linked to Levinson case killed in strikes 58:06 “No one was more responsible than Khamenei” 59:55 Could this bring justice? 01:01:00 Message to officials who know what happened 01:01:25 What accountability looks like now 01:01:53 Levinson family trips to Iran 01:03:26 Did the US do enough? 01:04:19 What Americans should understand about Iran 01:07:40 How Daniel wants his father remembered
Eye For Iran 
