Three stages of the war and Israel's objectives

“It’s a matter of weeks.”

That is Brigadier General (res.) Amir Avivi’s message on what may come next in Iran. The Israeli security insider and chairman of the Israel Defense and Security Forum says conditions could soon be in place for Iranians to rise up safely against the Islamic Republic. But, he says, Israel and the US would first assess whether those conditions had truly been met — and would remain overhead in the skies, with drones and advanced capabilities, to protect the people of Iran.

“Above their heads, there will be Israeli drones and American capabilities defending them from the air, and any attempt to hit the Iranian people will be met by an attack,” Avivi told Eye for Iran.

Then, what could Washington do next?

Investigative journalists Jay Solomon of The Free Press and David Patrikarakos, special correspondent for the Daily Mail, join us to discuss the next phase. Solomon says his sources in Washington indicate the Trump administration wants to secure the more than 400 kilograms of unaccounted-for highly enriched uranium. But with Pickaxe Mountain believed to be so deeply buried, an aerial mission alone may not be enough — raising the possibility of US ground forces entering tunnels.

“The Marine Expeditionary Unit, MEU, that’s kind of been moving closer to Iran … could potentially be a unit that would be utilized to go in and try to safeguard the materials,” Solomon says.

Patrikarakos shares what his sources are seeing inside Iran, including reports of growing disorder and signs that some IRGC elements may be turning against one another. Is the Revolutionary Guards Corps nearing a breaking point?

“They paint a picture of a regime in disarray, its security apparatus is in disarray,” Patrikarakos says.

And finally, we speak with Daniel Levinson, the son of retired FBI agent Robert Levinson, who disappeared in Iran while on an unsanctioned CIA-linked mission and is presumed dead. He tells us why the latest US and Israeli strikes may bring his family closer to the truth.

“Khamenei had the power to free my dad at any point and chose not to. He knew what was happening and did nothing, so for our family, it’s been an emotional moment — but not one of grief.”

You can watch this week's episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any podcast platform of your choosing.

Contents for this video:

00:00 Avivi: “The goal is clear”
00:24 Avivi says a turning point could be weeks away
00:54 Larijani dead, regime vows revenge
01:22 New reporting on IRGC infighting and next US moves
02:17 Robert Levinson case: Daniel Levinson joins later
03:45 Avivi on the three stages of the war
07:07 When can Iranians safely rise up?
09:20 Why Larijani’s killing matters
10:51 Is regime change the end game?
12:31 What conditions need to be met inside Iran
13:21 Avivi claims major defections in some units
16:01 Jay Solomon and David Patrikarakos join
16:35 David Patrikarakos on regime disarray
19:08 Are IRGC members turning on each other?
21:05 Jay Solomon on Pickaxe Mountain and US options
25:29 Could US boots go into the tunnels?
28:55 Kharg Island and pressure on the regime
34:07 Is this war also about China?
41:20 What is the actual US objective?
44:20 Could more regime officials be targeted?
45:27 Executions continue inside Iran
47:13 Iran’s information war in the West
52:44 Daniel Levinson joins the program
54:12 Robert Levinson’s disappearance explained
55:30 The family’s 19-year search for answers
56:58 Official linked to Levinson case killed in strikes
58:06 “No one was more responsible than Khamenei”
59:55 Could this bring justice?
01:01:00 Message to officials who know what happened
01:01:25 What accountability looks like now
01:01:53 Levinson family trips to Iran
01:03:26 Did the US do enough?
01:04:19 What Americans should understand about Iran
01:07:40 How Daniel wants his father remembered

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