The divided story of rate expectations

Tuesday 29th March 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s continued volatility in US bond markets, with significant flattening of the yield curves. Is this flagging a future recession? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the direction of travel is looking that way, although it’s too early to tell. But the rise in 2-year yields shows that markets are expecting a more aggressive stance by the Fed, whereas in the UK yields are falling after the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey indicated a less aggressive stance on rates given the cost of living squeeze the country is facing. Also today, how the Bank of Japan is tackling rising bond yields, the reasons behind today’s sharp fall in oil, what will Australia’s retail numbers show today, and what to expect from today’s budget (beyond what has already been made known).

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