The Numbers Predicting 2026 in federal politics!
Dec 23, 2025
The hosts dive into their annual Over/Under Contest, predicting the political landscape for 2026. They evaluate their less-than-stellar predictions from 2025 and set lines for key topics. Will Pierre Poilievre pass his leadership review? How will Mark Carney's popularity hold up? The duo debates potential floor-crossers and by-election surprises. They discuss the NDP's future leadership dynamics and poll performance. Finally, they ponder whether an election is on the horizon and reflect on possible cabinet resignations. It's a lively forecast for the year ahead!
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
NDP Leadership Could Erode Carney’s Lead
- Éric expects the NDP leadership contest will create a bump that could pull support from the Liberals.
- He predicts Nanòs Best-PM support for Mark Carney will dip below 50 and not recover by spring.
Opposition Leader’s Best-PM Tells Broader Trends
- Éric sets a 34.5% peak line for Poilievre on Nanos preferred-PM and expects occasional rebounds.
- Philippe thinks a 35% Poilievre score would imply major Conservative gains across polls.
NDP Leadership Race Uncertain
- They discuss the NDP leadership field with Heather McPherson and others as possible frontrunners.
- Philippe doubts McPherson will lead on the first ballot; Éric sees her competitive and bets she'll clear 35% first-round.