The View From Apollo Torsten Slok on the US Economy: Resilience Under Pressure
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Mar 12, 2026 
Torsten Slok, Apollo’s Chief Economist known for macroeconomic outlooks, breaks down how AI investment, fiscal stimulus, and an industrial renaissance are powering US growth. He contrasts these tailwinds with geopolitical shocks, tariff shifts, and inflation pressures. The conversation also covers AI-driven job formation, market concentration, and ideas for diversifying away from heavy AI exposure.
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US Growth Powered By AI CapEx And Policy
- The US economy has strong tailwinds from AI spending, the one big bill, and an industrial renaissance driving growth through 2026.
- Torsten Slok cites hyperscaler capex and chip, pharma, and defense investment as concrete engines lifting GDP.
Oil Shock Hits Headline Not Core Much
- A geopolitical-driven oil price shock mainly raises headline inflation (~0.5%) while core inflation rises modestly (~0.1%).
- Slok quantifies the Fed model: a $35/barrel oil move boosts headline more than core, so Fed reaction focuses on labor trends.
Expect Rate Cuts To Be Harder If Inflation Rises
- Higher inflation from external shocks makes it harder for the Fed to cut rates, so expect rate cuts to be delayed if labor stays tight.
- Slok stresses the Fed watches unemployment closely given its dual mandate.