Episode 486: Why We’re So Bad At Predicting Romantic Compatibility

Mar 24, 2026

Paul Eastwick, UC Davis psychology professor who studies attraction and relationships, shares why our stated “type” rarely predicts real chemistry. He explains how speed-dating research, conversation quality, and social context shape who we actually find attractive. Topics include why checklist matches can lack spark, how interaction dynamics matter, and whether compatibility is discovered or built.

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INSIGHT

Stated Preferences Fail To Predict Real Attraction

People often state clear partner preferences but those stated preferences don't predict who they actually find attractive in person.
Speed-dating studies showed people's pre-event ratings (e.g., valuing confidence) did not predict being drawn to confident partners during interactions.

INSIGHT

Your Type Is Often Your Social Pool

Apparent 'types' often reflect who we meet rather than deep internal preferences.
Analysis of people's exes showed similarity was largely explained by shared social environments and available dating pools, not unique inner types.

ADVICE

Shape Your Dating Pool Upstream

Shape who you meet upstream to improve dating outcomes rather than blaming personal failings.
Exert control over your dating pool by changing environments and contexts where you meet potential partners.

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Most of us think we know what we’re looking for in a partner. We have a “type,” a mental checklist, and the belief that if someone checks enough boxes, everything else will fall into place. But decades of research suggest that attraction and compatibility don’t work that way. In this episode, we’ll unpack how attraction really unfolds and why chemistry is so hard to predict.

My guest is Dr. Paul Eastwick, a Professor of Psychology at UC Davis, where he serves as the head of the Social-Personality Psychology program. He hosts the popular podcast Love Factually with his long-time colleague, Eli Finkel, where they analyze rom-coms and romantic dramas from the perspective of relationship science. Paul is also author of the new book Bonded by Evolution.

Some of the specific topics we explore in this episode include:

What’s the link between what we say we want and who we actually fall for?
Do we really have a “type” when it comes to romantic partners?
Why is it so hard to predict whether two people will feel a spark?
How can we improve our chances of finding a compatible partner?
How much does long-term satisfaction depend on initial compatibility?

You can check out Paul’s website to learn more about his work.

Got a sex question? Send me a podcast voicemail to have it answered on a future episode at speakpipe.com/sexandpsychology.

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Credits: Precision Podcasting (Podcast editing) and Shutterstock/Florian (Music). Image created with Canva; photos used with permission of guest.