UBS On-Air: Market Moves Talking Markets Podcast with Nic Janvier of Columbia Threadneedle Investments
Mar 8, 2026
Nic Janvier, Head of Equities for North America at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, offers a market-focused conversation. He discusses massive sector rotation beneath flat benchmarks, Q4 earnings tracking expectations, and a 2026 outlook driven by earnings and AI. He flags risks as AI reshapes what counts as quality and highlights opportunities in value sectors and ex-US markets like Europe and Japan.
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Episode notes
Flat Benchmarks Hide Big AI Rotation
- U.S. benchmarks look flat year-to-date but hide a large internal rotation driven by AI and cyclical expectations.
- Nic Janvier points out the S&P 500 is ~0.7% and the NASDAQ ~-0.94% while winners and losers shift beneath the surface.
Q4 Met Expectations While Markets Look Elsewhere
- Q4 corporate results have largely met expectations and guidance supports projected 2026 earnings growth of ~10–17% across caps.
- Janvier says markets are trading on AI beneficiary reassessment rather than pure earnings surprises.
Earnings Could Drive Low Double Digit Returns
- Columbia Threadneedle expects low double-digit U.S. equity returns if earnings progress as forecast, but macro, Fed moves, and geopolitics are wildcards.
- Janvier projects large-cap EPS growth ~12–13% and small/mid ~15–17% driving performance if external shocks stay muted.