The View Beyond: What Iran and Venezuela mean for oil

Geopolitics is once again in the spotlight. With protests intensifying in Iran and the recent US intervention in Venezuela, many investors are questioning whether these developments will meaningfully move oil prices — or whether an already oversupplied market will simply absorb the shocks.

In this episode of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, joins Ayako Lehmann to explore how these events fit into the broader global energy landscape. They also discuss the longer‑term outlook for US shale, the ongoing erosion of oil demand in advanced economies, and what all of this could mean for the crude oil market in 2026.

• (00:00) - Introduction and framing the geopolitical context
• (01:00) - Why Venezuela’s regime change did not move oil markets
• (02:35) - The role of heavy oil from Venezuela, Canada, and Mexico
• (04:16) - Assessing the situation in Iran and its impact on oil supply
• (06:22) - Contrasting risks: supply disruption in Iran vs. long-term supply potential in Venezuela
• (07:44) - Other geopolitical hotspots: Ukraine, Taiwan, and global supply chains
• (09:49) - Can geopolitical risks meaningfully drive oil prices higher?
• (12:00) - The state of the U.S. shale business and its sensitivity to price
• (13:55) - Implications for U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve policy
• (15:35) - The impact of lower oil prices on Russia and the Ukraine conflict
• (17:23) - Lessons from previous geopolitical tensions and structural shifts in oil markets
• (20:01) - Closing remarks and key takeaways

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