GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen

17 snips

Feb 18, 2026

Steen Jakobsen, CIO and macro strategist known for provocative "Outrageous Predictions," offers a contrarian take on shifting global power, currencies, and debt. He discusses dollar regime risk, state capitalism and fiscal dominance. He explores AI’s ambiguous productivity effects, market concentration risks, commodity repricing, and gold as a debasement signal.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

ANECDOTE

From Uncle's Trading Floor To Saxo Bank

Steen Jakobsen credits his uncle Ole Jacobson for inspiring his trading career after visiting a busy trading floor.
He later joined Saxo Bank, built their online trading machine, and started Outrageous Predictions as a thinking provocation.

INSIGHT

State Capitalism Masks Hidden Risks

State capitalism shifts allocation and increases fiscal dominance while initially lowering volatility.
That early calm masks mounting liquidity stress and concentrated fiscal burdens on small market-making capacity.

ADVICE

Trim Risk Gradually Into Midterms

Position portfolios defensively into political cycles by reducing risk exposure every quarter toward midterms.
Use a staged de-risking plan rather than a single timing bet to manage regime uncertainty.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow grind reshaping productivity, debt, currencies, and political stability. From dollar regime risk to state capitalism, from market concentration to commodity repricing, the discussion moves beyond headlines to structural fault lines. Is gold signaling debasement? Can the U.S. sustain its debt path? Does AI lift productivity or hollow it out? Rather than predict collapse, Jakobsen outlines a drawn-out transition where capital reallocates, volatility hides beneath the surface, and political systems are tested long before markets finally react.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Steen on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:38 - Introducing Steen Jakobsen

03:45 - From trading floors to outrageous predictions

06:32 - Dollar hedging and regime shift signals

08:06 - Davos as a macro catalyst

12:11 - The K shaped U.S. economy

14:50 - State capitalism and fiscal dominance

17:30 - What could invalidate the bearish dollar view

21:37 - Fed independence and policy credibility

24:49 - AI productivity or structural disinflation

27:56 - The modern Soviet analogy

31:21 - Democracy, debt and slow breakdown

33:18 - What could finally trigger market stress

37:08 - Commodities and tangible asset repricing

47:02 - Gold as a debasement signal

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer