GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen
Top Traders Unplugged
Dollar bear case and possible invalidations
Alan asks about the dollar; Steen says liquidity stress or war could invert the bearish dollar view and outlines repo risks.
The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow grind reshaping productivity, debt, currencies, and political stability. From dollar regime risk to state capitalism, from market concentration to commodity repricing, the discussion moves beyond headlines to structural fault lines. Is gold signaling debasement? Can the U.S. sustain its debt path? Does AI lift productivity or hollow it out? Rather than predict collapse, Jakobsen outlines a drawn-out transition where capital reallocates, volatility hides beneath the surface, and political systems are tested long before markets finally react.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Steen on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:38 - Introducing Steen Jakobsen
03:45 - From trading floors to outrageous predictions
06:32 - Dollar hedging and regime shift signals
08:06 - Davos as a macro catalyst
12:11 - The K shaped U.S. economy
14:50 - State capitalism and fiscal dominance
17:30 - What could invalidate the bearish dollar view
21:37 - Fed independence and policy credibility
24:49 - AI productivity or structural disinflation
27:56 - The modern Soviet analogy
31:21 - Democracy, debt and slow breakdown
33:18 - What could finally trigger market stress
37:08 - Commodities and tangible asset repricing
47:02 - Gold as a debasement signal
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
