Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 341: Phil Suttle on Trump's Populism, the Productivity Mystery, and Global Disruption
Jan 16, 2026
Phil Suttle, founder of Suttle Economics and seasoned global economist, dives into the complexities of today's economic landscape. He discusses anomalies in the US labor market, attributing issues to declining immigrant flows. Trump’s populist policies, surprisingly influenced by Elizabeth Warren's ideas, are critically analyzed. Suttle also tackles the productivity mystery, speculating on AI's role, and examines geopolitical risks affecting global business. With sticky inflation on the horizon, he forecasts potential rate rises and the extreme volatility of oil prices.
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Episode notes
Mortgage Purchases Echo QE Risks
- Trump's housing mortgage purchases aim to lower mortgage rates similar to QE in effect.
- The policy may help affordability but risks repeating past GSE vulnerabilities from heavy MBS intervention.
Credit Card Caps Hit Bank Profits
- Capping credit card rates would directly compress bank earnings because lending spreads are very wide.
- Politically it's populist and mirrors Elizabeth Warren–style proposals despite coming from Trump.
Expect Wide Fed Outcome Scenarios
- Prepare for significant Fed policy uncertainty driven by political pressure and appointments.
- Expect wide scenario risks and avoid assuming a single narrow path for rates in 2026.
