The Hurdle Rate Podcast Episode 53 - Bitcoin, AI and The New QE
13 snips
Mar 31, 2026 Conversation jumps between the US debt problem and whether Treasuries can find buyers. They debate how AI could be a deflationary shock that reshapes startup valuations and talent markets. The hosts explore debasement, portfolio construction and a case for digital credit as a reserve. They close by making the bullish case for steady Bitcoin accumulation.
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New QE Through Regulatory Tweaks
- Reducing the Fed balance sheet may be attempted via regulatory 'a la carte' changes but likely won't succeed given rising Treasury issuance and political limits.
- Matt predicts the Fed will end up keeping the balance sheet large and using regulatory tweaks as a 'new QE' backstop.
AI As Rapid Deflationary Disruptor
- AI is a deflationary, fast-moving force that is already compressing labor needs and will be extremely hard for policy models to incorporate.
- Ben Workman notes rapid six-month adoption cycles causing layoffs and cross-industry pressure to adopt AI to stay competitive.
AI Will Crush Software Valuations
- Startups and valuations face dramatic repricing because AI commoditizes software, collapsing long-duration growth multiples.
- Panel expects early-stage equity to be valued on near-term cash generation rather than long-term vision, shrinking typical VC upside.