Know Your Risk Podcast The Oil Risk Nobody Is Talking About
Mar 10, 2026
A deep look at geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's leverage over global oil flows. Clear breakdowns of how oil pricing works and why market signals may be misleading. Scenarios that model extreme oil price spikes and their economic fallout. Discussion of possible market suppression in futures and why physical shortages would upend paper markets.
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Made A 15 Minute Explainer On Oil Pricing
- Zach recounts producing a 15-minute explainer breaking down how oil is priced and why Venezuela doesn't move global prices now.
- He created the clip to correct widespread misunderstanding and reduce misleading political narratives.
Strait Of Hormuz Is The True Oil Price Lever
- Oil pricing is driven by physical access and shipping chokepoints, not isolated supply events like Venezuela.
- Zach Abraham explains the Strait of Hormuz is the real lever: closures can spike global crude far above current futures-linked prices.
Opening The Strait Carries High Military And Political Cost
- Military capability to 'open the strait' is feasible but politically costly, making closure an effective Iranian leverage tool.
- Abraham argues the U.S. would risk major assets and boots on the ground if a carrier or destroyer were taken out.