Forward Guidance Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge | Alfonso Peccatiello
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Aug 27, 2025 
Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder of The Macro Compass and CIO of Palinoro Capital, dives into the complex relationship between Trump's tariffs and U.S. monetary policy. He discusses how political influences may impact the Federal Reserve and forecasts economic growth. The conversation also explores the implications of fiscal changes on financial markets, the effectiveness of QE versus fiscal deficits, and the roles of commodities and cryptocurrencies in today’s economy. It’s a lively discussion packed with insights for investors navigating these turbulent waters.
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Watch The Acceleration Of Money Creation
- Growth comes from structural factors and cyclical money creation, and you must watch the second derivative.
- Alf emphasizes whether money creation is accelerating or decelerating to forecast nominal growth shifts.
Prefer Fiscal Stimulus Over QE For Growth
- For real economic lift, prioritize fiscal deficits over QE when seeking growth.
- Alf notes QE alone rarely produces sustained real-economy credit creation or growth.
Interest Payments Aren't Direct Stimulus
- Interest paid on government debt mostly flows to financial intermediaries and has limited direct stimulative effect.
- Alf excludes interest payments from his 'car accelerating' metric and focuses on primary deficits.