One Decision Four Years of Ukraine War, No End In Sight: Ex-CIA officer Mike Baker Assesses Risks
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Feb 26, 2026 
Mike Baker, former CIA covert operations officer who ran intelligence work in hostile zones and hosts The President's Daily Brief, assesses global flashpoints. He discusses U.S. military buildup near Iran and likely strike scenarios. He examines continued U.S. intelligence support to Ukraine and why Moscow may keep fighting. He also outlines Cuba’s deepening crisis and regional implications.
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Large US Buildup Likely Precedes Action
- U.S. military buildup in the Middle East is the largest since 2003 and likely signals imminent action rather than mere leverage.
- Mike Baker and Sir Richard Dearlove read two carrier strike groups plus moved squadrons as preparation for a near-term strike or campaign.
Targeted Strikes Intend To Shock The Regime
- Initial strikes would aim to demonstrate Iranian options are limited by targeting regime command, IRGC command-and-control, and leadership succession nodes.
- Mike Baker notes Iran has already done succession planning and strikes could be followed by a longer weeks-long campaign if initial effects fail.
Airstrikes Aimed At Top Regime Figures
- A likely U.S. targeting approach would focus on Supreme Leader's inner circle, IRGC leadership and their brutal paramilitary units to destabilize the regime without committing ground troops.
- Sir Richard Dearlove warns this is a huge gamble with unpredictable outcomes.