Forward Guidance The Recession Has Already Started | George Robertson
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Oct 8, 2025 Monetary analyst George Robertson, author of *Monetary Frontier*, shares his bearish outlook, arguing that the recession has started despite booming markets. He attributes this downturn to fiscal tightening from tariffs, falling corporate profits, and troubling employment indicators. Through his flow-of-funds analysis, he highlights the disconnect between S&P performance and real earnings, raising concerns over job losses and corporate strain. George warns of upcoming economic challenges, urging listeners to reconsider their investment strategies.
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Fed Is Mostly A Non-Factor
- George argues the Fed has been effectively out of the macro impulse since 2014–2015 and rarely moves the flow of funds materially.
- He says the economy is driven mainly by fiscal flows, not Fed actions, so focus on money-in/money-out data.
Tariffs Act As Fiscal Tightening
- Trump-era policies produced a rapid fiscal tightening through job cuts and tariffs that act like a tax on the economy.
- Robertson estimates tariffs and related moves have already removed large fiscal impulse and materially raised corporate tax-like costs.
Flow-Of-Funds Shows NGDP Cliff
- Combining daily Treasury data, Robertson shows a fall in the monetary+fiscal impulse from ~5–6% of GDP down toward 2% within months.
- He warns this implies a large nominal GDP swing and predicts NGDP could hit zero growth by year-end.