Odds on Open This Ex-Poker Pro Built a Hedge Fund by Betting Against Beta – David Orr on Asymmetric Bets
Jan 12, 2026
David Orr, a former professional poker player and founder of Militia Capital, shares his journey from playing poker to hedge fund management. He reveals how poker informed his investment strategies, focusing on risk management and asymmetric bets. Orr discusses the impact of the Bet Against Beta paper on his investment philosophy and highlights the importance of long-term thematic investing. He offers practical advice for aspiring investors and emphasizes the value of original thinking and support roles in the finance industry.
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Limits Of The Pod Shop Model
- Pod shop models force short-term performance and prevent staying wrong, but their timeline can distort math for larger scale.
- David argues their hyper-short focus isn't optimal for long-term returns at scale.
Reimagining Fee And Structure
- Mega hedge funds collect massive management fees from scale, which can look like free money for managers.
- David plans a lower-fee, vertically integrated model using ETFs and fewer middlemen to add real value.
Manage Risk, Don't Eliminate Beta
- Let portfolio managers manage risk within sensible bounds and avoid forcing zero factor exposures.
- Intervene only when a PM takes reckless factor bets like three beta to a single factor.