RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Stewie Can't Be Fed Chair
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Nov 28, 2025 The discussion kicks off with insights on consumer weakness impacting discretionary stocks ahead of the holidays. Oversold signals in SPACs, semis, and Bitcoin suggest potential market shifts. A debate ensues over the implications of 'hawkish cuts' from the Fed as data falters. Geopolitical tensions, especially regarding Taiwan, are explored. The hosts speculate on potential Fed Chair candidates, emphasizing the importance of political optics and institutional norms. Finally, concerns over tariffs and their effect on margins in 2026 add to the economic outlook.
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A Hawkish Cut Risks Falling Behind The Curve
- A single Fed cut in December without a clear easing path risks the Fed falling behind the curve.
- Responding to lagged data with meeting-by-meeting cuts can leave policy perpetually reactive.
Use Two-Year Yields Over Fed Funds For Markets
- Watch the two-year yield rather than Fed funds probability for market direction; it embeds longer-run expectations.
- Use the three-month trend in the two-year yield as a statistically significant guide for S&P returns.
Rallies Follow Cross-Asset Oversold Convergence
- Market rallies often coincide with oversold conditions across multiple risk assets rather than single policy signals.
- The late-week rally matched oversold SPACs, semis, NASDAQ equal-weight, and Bitcoin converging with Fed commentary.