NAB Morning Call War, wages and algorithms
Feb 18, 2026
Gavin Friend, London-based NAB markets economist who covers global markets and policy. He breaks down oil’s jump amid Iran tensions. He explains US tech’s rebound on second‑tier data. He walks through UK inflation cooling and Aussie wages holding at 3.4%. He flags FOMC minutes, RBNZ moves and Zuckerberg’s testimony on algorithms.
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Oil Rises On Iran Risk
- Rising geopolitical tensions around Iran have pushed Brent above $70 a barrel, lifting oil prices sharply.
- Markets reacted with higher yields and a stronger US dollar as investors priced the increased risk premium.
Second-Tier US Data Boosts Tech
- US second-tier data surprised on the upside, helping tech stocks rebound and equities climb.
- Durable goods details and capex indicators signalled stronger business investment than markets expected.
UK Inflation Set To Fall Further
- UK headline CPI fell to 3% with monthly prices down, driven by cheaper airfares, food and fuel.
- Mechanical base effects and budget measures should push headline inflation nearer to 2% in coming months.