Outrage + Optimism: The Climate Podcast Forecasting Disaster: A ‘super’ El Niño? And the case for early action
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Apr 2, 2026 Andrew Kruczkiewicz, a climate advisor at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and Columbia researcher who turns climate science into humanitarian preparedness. He discusses the risks of a possible ‘super’ El Niño and the limits of forecasts. He explores anticipatory finance and early action examples, the ethics of spending before disaster, and how institutions translate uncertain forecasts into lifesaving preparedness.
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El Niño Amplifies A Warming World
- El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO and amplifies global heat and extreme weather when it coincides with underlying global warming.
- Paul Dickinson notes many catastrophic climate years were El Niño years, increasing heat, droughts, floods and food insecurity worldwide.
Release Funds Ahead Of Forecasted Disasters
- Use anticipatory action and forecast-based financing to release funds before disasters hit to reduce worst impacts.
- Examples: Philippines activation released funds up to 72 hours before landfall; Bangladesh WFP reached 350,000 people five days before floods, cutting food insecurity.
Spring Predictability Barrier Limits Early Confidence
- Seasonal forecast skill is limited by the spring predictability barrier until June–July, so confidence rises after that window.
- Andrew Kruczkiewicz says forecasts become more reliable for fall–winter impacts once we pass the barrier.