UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: POTUS 47 - Ceasefire: Our investment perspectives
Apr 8, 2026
Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor at UBS, outlines back-channel diplomacy and fragile ceasefire dynamics. Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, discusses portfolio positioning amid geopolitical volatility and oil-driven central bank implications. They also touch on early U.S. midterm signals and how election scenarios could shape markets.
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How The Ceasefire Came Together
- The ceasefire followed indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan and pressure from sustained military and economic actions.
- Shane Lieberman describes Iran clamping down economically while Israel targeted military production, prompting talks and a two-week negotiation window.
Ceasefire Is Fragile And Negotiation Focused
- The two-week ceasefire is fragile and likely to include tough rhetoric, but could hinge on Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Shane Lieberman expects ongoing negotiations about uranium custody and recognition of Iran's regional power.
Don’t Time Geopolitics Stay Diversified
- Investors cannot time geopolitical events reliably and risk missing gains by selling out during volatile news-driven moves.
- Kurt Reiman notes diversification, fixed income yields, and selective hedges as durable portfolio tools amid sudden ceasefire-driven rallies.