Geopolitical Cousins The Spice Must Flow!
32 snips
Apr 2, 2026 They race to predict a dramatic presidential television move and whether the US might pivot away from NATO. They debate scenarios from limited pullback to wider energy shocks and how Hormuz could be used as leverage. They explore who would fill maritime security if the US steps back and how multipolar powers and regional actors would reshape energy and strategic balances.
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War Can Continue While Oil Still Flows
- Marko offers a third scenario where a long-running war coexists with continued oil flow, likening it to Dune’s spice flow despite perpetual conflict.
- He argues markets often price through prolonged violence if energy transit remains functional.
Mubarak Moment Anecdote Warns Of Trump Surprise
- Jacob recalls predicting Mubarak would not resign during the Arab Spring and being proven wrong when Mubarak defied expectations.
- He uses that anecdote to warn Trump might similarly have an unexpected 'grandfather' moment and double down.
Iran Tolling Would Create Strategic Uncertainty
- Jacob warns tolling by Iran creates strategic uncertainty: tolling can become selective leverage against states like Pakistan or Israel.
- He stresses markets need predictability; selective tolling is 'certain uncertainty' that damages markets.
