Probability Estimates and Outcomes

We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to distract from the Iran morass. Jacob thinks that there are two most likely scenarios following Trump's speech today. Behind Door A is a taco salad. Behind Door B is economic catastrophe. There might be a "third, secret door" - but you'll have to tune in to learn more :)

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Open

(00:53) - Pregame Iran Updates

(01:56) - Trump Speech Predictions

(02:56) - NATO Exit Distraction

(08:19) - Two Doors A Or B

(11:43) - Door C War But Oil

(16:09) - Escalation Odds And Markets

(20:51) - Tolling Debate Predictability

(24:39) - Israel Spoiler Scenarios

(35:48) - Gulf States And China Leverage

(37:46) - Spice Leverage Limits

(38:37) - Iran Hormuz Toll Scenario

(39:54) - Maritime Chokepoints Debate

(41:09) - Trump and Sea Power Shift

(43:40) - US Exit and Regional Equilibrium

(46:12) - Industrial Policy Reality Check

(49:25) - Russia Ukraine Energy Spillover

(50:46) - Power Is Fungible Argument

(54:30) - Who Guards Gulf After US

(59:41) - Multipolar Stability Case

(1:05:28) - Ukraine as Garrison State

(01:09:30) - Doom Gloom Endgame Risks

(01:17:23) - Wrap Up and Lakers

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro