Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) Bet on it: Zvi Mowshowitz on professional gambling, trading, and AI futures
46 snips
Aug 8, 2024 
In this insightful discussion, Zvi Mowshowitz, a professional gambler, trader, and AI journalist, shares his diverse career journey from Magic: The Gathering to sports betting and AI commentary. He dives into the nuances of informal and financial markets, revealing the intricacies of sportsbooks. Zvi reflects on decision-making during COVID-19, shedding light on the chaos of vaccine distribution. Their conversation also touches on the transformative potential of AI and the importance of consistent actions in personal happiness.
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Target Squares, Not Sharps
- In sports betting, identify and exploit the biases of less informed gamblers ("squares").
- Minimize trading with other "sharps" (informed gamblers) to maximize profits.
Sportsbook Shenanigans
- Sportsbooks can identify and limit winning gamblers, offering them smaller bet sizes or worse odds.
- Gamblers might use "beards" to disguise their identity and continue betting.
Financial Markets vs. Sports Betting
- Financial markets are more unified, competitive, and efficient than sports betting.
- Edges are smaller (basis points, not percentages), and opportunities disappear faster.