Forward Guidance Markets Are Entering A Wartime Economy | Cem Karsan
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Jan 21, 2026 
Cem Karsan, founder of Kai Volatility and a keen macro-market commentator, dives into the complexities of today's wartime economy. He discusses the bifurcation of the global economy, detailing the stark differences between China and Western allies. Karsan explores the rise of populism amidst inflationary pressures and its impact on the electoral cycle. He highlights a focus on strategic assets like precious metals while drawing parallels to past market behaviors. His insights on the Federal Reserve's limited role and the risks to the dollar's reserve status are particularly thought-provoking.
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Greenland Play As Strategic Cover
- The Greenland episode functions as a strategic signal to mobilize European military spending and posture.
- Cem argues it's a believable distraction meant to build a Western war footing, not literal U.S. annexation.
Fiscal Spending And Conflict Fuel Inflation
- Fiscal spending and global conflict are inseparable drivers of inflation, mirroring the 1960s–70s pattern.
- Karsan links populism, protectionism, and sustained inflation to the political demand for median outcomes.
Populism Emerges From Long-Term Inequality
- Populism arises when long-term free-market gains concentrate wealth and block median outcomes.
- Karsan says millennials' economic frustrations drove the 2020 policy shift and ongoing protectionism.