The Property Academy Podcast Biggest house price spike since 2021. Or is it?⎥Ep. 2022
Mar 25, 2025
Clear discussion of New Zealand house price movements and whether a February spike is real. Examination of seasonal effects and why month-to-month figures can mislead. Explanation of how seasonally adjusted data is calculated and where to find it. Review of recent downturns, recoveries, and signs the market may be turning.
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Seasonal Bounce Explains Big February Jump
- February's 1.4% jump looked large because prices fell in December and January, creating a bounce back effect.
- Seasonality (holiday slow-down then pent-up February demand) explains much of month-to-month volatility in house prices.
Personal Mistake Reading A February Spike
- Stephen recalled February 2024's 1% spike that he misread as a sustained recovery, followed by five months of falls.
- This personal example shows how seasonal effects can fool even active market followers.
Use Seasonally Adjusted Data To Judge Market Direction
- Focus on seasonally adjusted price movements rather than raw month-to-month changes to judge market direction.
- Use standard seasonal-adjustment methods (US Census Bureau algorithms) implemented in tools like R for accuracy.