Monetary Matters with Jack Farley “This Is The End of The Oil Market As We Know It” | Rory Johnston on How $300 Oil Could Trigger Depression If De-Escalation Does Not Occur In Iran War
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Mar 19, 2026 
Rory Johnston, independent oil analyst and founder of Commodity Context, warns the Strait of Hormuz closure has created an unprecedented oil shock. He quantifies massive shut‑ins, compares this to past crises, and outlines how refinery cuts, routing limits, strategic releases and geopolitics could push prices far higher or, if de-escalation occurs, allow flows to resume.
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Diesel And Jet Fuel Are The Most Vulnerable
- Middle distillates (diesel, jet fuel) are the most acutely tight products due to prior supply shifts and low inventories.
- Johnston highlights Europe relies on Middle East diesel after banning Russian diesel, amplifying current shortages.
Trade Restrictions Could Create Domestic Shortages
- U.S. regions are unbalanced so trade restrictions could cause domestic shortages despite being a net exporter.
- Johnston warns export bans or refined product trade limits would glut local supply but force refinery run cuts and worsen global shortages.
How Commodity Context Tracks The Market
- Rory Johnston runs Commodity Context with twice-weekly publications including Oil Context Weekly and monthly data decks tracking balances and OPEC.
- He uses granular charts (e.g., Libyan production) and a data-driven approach aimed at institutional and individual investors.