The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer The Iran War Energy Crisis Is Here (with Helima Croft)
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Mar 19, 2026 Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC and former CIA economic analyst, breaks down the Iran-driven energy shock. She explains the Strait of Hormuz logjam, why markets misread the risk, and why U.S. supply cannot quickly plug the gap. Short-term LNG outages, global winners and losers, and the hard policy choices on reopening vital routes are also explored.
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Alternate Routes Cannot Replace Hormuz Volumes
- There is no single safe alternate export route that can replace Hormuz volumes.
- The Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu can move ~4–5mbd versus ~17mbd through Hormuz, so it cannot fully substitute.
Demand Destruction Is The Ultimate Price Ceiling
- The price ceiling is set by demand destruction: extreme prices eventually collapse global oil demand.
- Croft stresses multi-month conflicts could push prices past 2008 highs unless demand falls dramatically.
No Easy Offset For Lost Qatari LNG
- LNG has no easy maritime alternative: Qatar's Ras Laffan shutdown removes unique export capacity.
- Croft notes Qatar shut Ras Laffan as a precaution and subsequent strikes may keep ~17% of Qatari gas offline for years.