Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and former CIA economic analyst, joins Jake and Jon as the war with Iran triggers the most severe energy disruption in decades. They discuss:
- What happens when the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint, is effectively shut down? How much oil and gas is actually offline, and why there may be no quick fix?
- Why markets misread the risks leading up to the war and why oil prices may no longer be a reliable indicator of geopolitical danger.
- Who bears the brunt of this crisis, from LNG-dependent economies in Asia and Europe to global supply chains already under strain.
Finally, Jake and Jon introduce a new segment: The Options Memo, a look at the kind of choices a president faces at a real inflection point. They lay out 3 paths forward: declare victory and wind the war down, escalate in hopes of forcing de-escalation, or go all in militarily to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
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