Moody's Talks - Inside Economics “Fed” Up with the Jobs Report
Jan 9, 2026
John Hilsenrath, a former Wall Street Journal journalist turned Fed policy advisor, joins to discuss the latest jobs report and its implications. The conversation reveals the labor market's fragility, with Hilsenrath labeling the current job growth as 'anemic'. He raises concerns about Fed independence amidst political pressures and suggests that the Fed's real inflation target may be higher than officially stated. Additionally, they analyze trends in healthcare job growth and the rising unemployment among college graduates, reflecting changing labor dynamics.
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4.5% Unemployment Is A Fed Threshold
- John called the jobs report largely unremarkable for markets and highlighted 4.5% unemployment as a Fed psychological threshold.
- He argued a rate path under Powell likely ends without further cuts unless the job market collapses.
Stimulus, Tech Shift, And Inflation Risks
- John warned policy is too easy and expects more inflation from fiscal and monetary stimulus.
- He described current job gains concentrated in human-interaction sectors as a feature of technological change.
Anemic Job Growth Outlook
- Chris labeled the report 'anemic' and estimated underlying job growth nearer zero to 25K, signaling weak momentum.
- He saw no strong reasons for optimism in the latest data and revisions.