The Predictability of Yield Curve Inversions

An inverted yield curve is basically kind of a walk through a recessionary episode. It has a very strong predictive power, but history shows that it took like 18 months for any meaningful curve shape to actually walk us through an actual recession. In 2021, you could refinance your mortgage at 3% for 30 years fixed in the US. Junk corporates could lock up funding for 10 years at 3 to 4% extremely low levels. They didn't slip at the wheel. So they locked up long-term funding, which means the famous rollover risk that I'm talking about has been basically nonexistent over the last 12 months. Do I dare to say this time is structurally different? No,